Myths/Obama/federal budget/70 percent increase
< Myths | Obama | federal budget
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
| Claim: The federal debt has increased by almost 70 percent under Obama. |
Analysis
While this is true, it says as much about Republican policies and actions as it does about Obama's policies and actions.
- Obama took office on the heels of the worst recession since the Great Depression 80 years earlier – a recession that was set in motion largely by the actions of his predecessor and Republican deregulatory initiatives.
- While even a linear projection (which is unrealistically pessimistic) shows the debt approximately doubling under Obama by the time he leaves office, it also doubled under Bush – who not only didn't have to deal with a major economic crisis upon assuming office, but even had a surplus.
- Bush swiftly reversed our good fortunes through heedless spending coupled with major tax breaks for the rich.
- Obama has reversed our bad fortunes through deficit spending and generally sound fiscal policy.
- Obama was also up against an obstructionist Republican majority that automatically opposed anything Democrats suggested. The debt would probably have come down a great deal further if Republicans had been less focused on making Democrats (and government in general) look bad and more focused on actual governing, i.e. doing their jobs.
Conclusions
If you're upset about the size of the deficit, you should be angry at Bush for (among other things) starting two wars while reducing taxes for the rich, and at the Republicans in general for pushing through deregulation of Wall Street in 1999. (No, you can't blame Bill Clinton any more than you can blame Obama.)
Figures
Clinton is the only president to reduce the deficit within the past 50 years. (He wasn't a Republican.)
Total Federal Debt on certain key dates:
| Date | What | Unadjusted | Inflation-Adjusted ($T) | US GDP (unadj. $T) | % of GDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993-09-30* | Bill Clinton assumes office | 4,411,488,883,139.38 | 7.351 | 7.033 | 63% |
| 2001-09-30* | George W. Bush assumes office | 5,807,463,412,200.06 | 7.895 | 10.7 | 54% |
| 2009-01-20 | Barack Obama assumes office | 10,626,877,048,913.08 | 11.92 | 14.57 | 73% |
| 2014-12-03 | date of DailySignal article | 17,976,896,374,080.00 | 18.3 | 17.71 | 101% |
| 2015-02-22 | date of this writing | 18,138,459,241,907.59 | 18.1 | -- | -- |
* closest date for which a figure is available
Notes:
- As of 2/22, the inflation-adjusted deficit had actually gone down just a bit since the DailySignal article a few months earlier.
- The CBO says that the 2015 deficit will be 2.7% of GDP, having peaked at 10% in 2007. Both of these are way off from my numbers, so I think I must be calculating wrong; the actual figures are much better.
Links
Reference
- TreasuryDirect (US Department of the Treasury):
- 2014-07-15 The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook (Congressional Budget Office)
News
- 2014-07-21 The Fiscal Fizzle: An Imaginary Budget and Debt Crisis (Paul Krugman)